Outlook darkens for the Gulf’s competing powers

In early 2016, the Middle East’s two largest countries looked set to become the world’s most vibrant frontier markets. Two years on, many bankers doubt that either Iran or Saudi Arabia can live up to these expectations.

In emerging market banking, occupancy rates at the most expensive hotels often tell an important story. An increase in business typically suggests renewed interest in the local economy from international financiers; a fall, that the perception of the country has turned sour.

Olivier Guitta, a former private banker who now advises banks on geopolitical risk at GlobalStrat, has been following developments in Saudi Arabia and Iran for over a decade. He is sure that, in both countries, the hotels favoured by bankers are emptying.

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